Veterinary Sciences and Medicine


Bayesian Analysis for Bovine and Bubaline Herpes Virus Cross-Reaction in Bubaline Serum Sample

Author(s): Helio Junji Shimozako, Lucyana Keity Santana Silva, Janiglecia Teixeira Almeida, Marcia Mayumi Fusuma, Alexandre Lopes Gomes, Renato Akio Ogata, Claudia Del Fava, Adriana Hellmeister de Campos Nogueira Romaldini, Eliana De Stefano, Domenico Vecchio, Sergio Rosati, Luiz Henrique Cabral da Silva, Liria Hiromi Okuda

Background and Objectives: Considering the possibility of false-positives in the bovine herpes virus diagnostic tests, this study evaluated how probable to occur a cross-reaction among bovine herpes virus BoHV1, BoHV5 and BuHV1 is and how this can impact in a prevalence estimation. 
Methods: 101 bubaline serums were sampled from a slaughterhouse located in Boituva City-SP (Brazil). The search for anti-BoHV1 and anti-BoHV5 was carried out by virus-neutralization technique (adapted from OIE protocol). On the other hand, the evaluation of the presence of anti-BuHV1 was developed by ELISA technique (commercial indirect ELISA kit). From the results of the diagnostic, the conditional probabilities were calculated. For those calculation, each virus was considered reference and compared with the other two species separately. 
Results: The condition of higher probability of cross-reaction was P(BoHV1+|BuHV1+) = 0.97, which means the probability of an animal is positive for BoHV1, given it is infected for BuHV1. On the other hand, the condition of lower probability was P(BuHV1+|BoHV5+) = 0.86, which indicates the probability of an animal is positive for BuHV1, given it is infected for BoHV5. Moreover, if the prevalence of BuHV1 is higher than 7.8%, at least half of positive cases detected for BoHV5 may indeed be BuHV1. The inverse thinking is considered if the investigator is interested to estimate the prevalence of BuHV1 where there are cases of BoHV5. In this case, the “threshold” prevalence of BoHV5 is 5.3%. 
Conclusions: The prevalence estimation of BuHV1 is the most influenced by the previous prevalence of BoHV1. In opposition, the prevalence estimation of BoHV1 is the less influenced by the previous prevalence of BuHV1.

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